โIs Bitcoin mining still profitable?โ has the same answer every year: it depends on your electricity price, your machineโs efficiency and how fast the rest of the network grows. What changes are the numbers. This article explains the economics from first principles, shows a worked example and lists the costs that calculators usually leave out. To run your own numbers, use our Bitcoin mining profitability calculator, where every network parameter is an input you control.
How miners earn
The Bitcoin network finds a block roughly every ten minutes โ about 144 per day. Each block pays its miner the block subsidy plus the transaction fees of the transactions inside it. Since the halving in April 2024, the subsidy is 3.125 BTC per block; it halves again at block 1,050,000, expected around 2028. The halving countdown tracks the estimate.
Your expected share of those rewards equals your share of the total network hashrate. If the network runs at 1,000 EH/s (10ยฒยน hashes per second) and you run 200 TH/s (2 ร 10ยนโด), your share is 0.00002% โ and over many blocks, you earn that fraction of all rewards. Mining pools turn that lumpy lottery into a steady daily payout for a fee.
The formula
If you know the network difficulty instead of the hashrate, the network hashrate is difficulty ร 2ยณยฒ รท 600 seconds. Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks โ about two weeks โ to keep blocks near ten minutes as hashrate changes.
A worked example
Take a modern ASIC rated at 200 TH/s and 3,500 W (17.5 joules per terahash). Assume:
The machine earns about 0.0000861 BTC per day (8,610 satoshis), worth $8.61. It uses 81.5 kWh, costing $4.89. Profit: $3.72 per day, about $113 per month, $1,358 per year. Payback on $3,500: about 940 days โ around two and a half years โ if nothing changes.
Now change one input at a time:
| Change | Profit per day |
|---|---|
| Base case | $3.72 |
| Electricity $0.08/kWh | $2.09 |
| Electricity $0.106/kWh | โ $0 (break-even) |
| BTC price $80,000 | about $2.0 |
| Network hashrate +25% | about $2.0 |
These example inputs are illustrations, not todayโs market; replace them with live values from a block explorer. The point is the sensitivity: a modest rise in power cost or network hashrate erases most of the margin.
Hashprice: the industry shortcut
Hashprice is the revenue per unit of hashrate per day โ in the example, about $0.044 per TH/s per day. It folds BTC price, network hashrate, subsidy and fees into one number. Compare it with your cost per TH/s per day (power cost รท hashrate) to see your margin instantly. At 17.5 J/TH and $0.06/kWh, the power cost is about $0.025 per TH/s per day, leaving a margin of roughly $0.02. Older machines at 30+ J/TH have higher costs per terahash and are the first to switch off when hashprice falls.
Why payback is usually longer than calculated
Most calculators โ including ours โ assume todayโs difficulty and price for the whole period. In reality:
A useful mental adjustment is to treat calculated payback as a best case and to stress-test with higher difficulty and lower prices.
Costs calculators leave out
Mining vs simply buying bitcoin
An honest comparison: divide the total expected cost (hardware plus electricity over its useful life) by the bitcoin you expect to mine. If that cost per BTC is above the market price, buying is cheaper and carries no operational risk. In the example, the electricity alone costs about $56,800 per BTC mined; adding the hardware cost over its useful life raises it further. Mining makes sense where electricity is cheap or otherwise wasted, where heat can be reused, or as a business with scale and expertise โ not usually as a home investment at household tariffs.
If you prefer buying, a regular plan smooths the entry price โ the DCA calculator shows how โ and swapping stablecoins into BTC without an account takes minutes with USDT to BTC.
Home mining: when it can make sense
Expect noise (modern ASICs are loud), heat, and the need for proper electrical circuits. Smaller, quieter units exist but earn proportionally less.
Taxes and records
In many countries, mined coins are income at their market value when received, and selling them later realises a capital gain or loss from that value. Keep pool payout records, electricity bills and hardware invoices โ expenses may be deductible if mining is a business. The ROI calculator annualises your overall return once you know total costs and value.
Fees: the wild card after each halving
Transaction fees are the part of mining revenue that is hard to forecast. During busy periods โ popular token launches, inscription waves, market panics โ fees can briefly exceed the subsidy for some blocks; in quiet periods they are a small fraction of it. Over the long term, fees must eventually carry miners as the subsidy shrinks towards zero. For a profitability estimate, use a recent average of fees per block rather than a spike, and run a second scenario with lower fees to see how dependent your margin is on them.
Choosing a machine
When comparing ASICs, look at:
Enter each candidate as a row in the free mining spreadsheet template on the calculator page: it uses the same formulas and shows payback and break-even power price side by side.
Pools and payout methods
Almost every small miner joins a pool. Pools differ in fee level and payout method: some pay a fixed amount per share regardless of luck, others share actual block rewards and fees. Lower fees are tempting, but stable payouts and reliable infrastructure matter just as much. Whatever you choose, enter the pool fee in the calculator โ a 2% difference in fee is a 2% difference in revenue for the life of the machine.
Summary
Mining profit is your share of a shrinking reward pool, minus electricity. Efficiency (J/TH) and power price decide whether you are in the game; network growth and halvings decide how long you stay. Run your numbers in the mining profitability calculator, stress-test with a higher network hashrate and a lower price, and compare honestly with buying bitcoin outright.